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Abstract We investigate coupled climate model initialized predictions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) prediction skill in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multi Year Large Ensemble (SMYLE). The PDO is predictable up to a year in advance in SMYLE; however, the predictability depends on verification month, with skill degrading most rapidly in boreal spring for all initializations. To examine the role of teleconnections from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the prediction skill of the PDO, we use a multi‐linear regression model. The linear model shows that initial value persistence explains most of the PDO prediction skill in SMYLE. In addition, the PDO prediction skill's seasonal dependence is fully reproduced only when ENSO is included as a predictor. These results suggest that ENSO has a strong influence on the seasonality of PDO predictions. 

Student success in educational ecosystems is a primary goal of leadership efforts. Yet, power and privilege affect the racial, classist, and gendered implications of STEM education work in K-12 education as well as higher education. Interventions have been done at various levels, but despite the hard work of implementation, this has not resulted in dramatic improvements to STEM educational ecosystems or student engagement within them. Often, these implementations are done at the faculty/student level or institutional level but not at the departmental leadership level. The NSF-supported Eco-STEM Project proposes to establish a healthy educational ecosystem that supports all individuals (students, faculty, and staff) to thrive. Project activities are guided by ecosystem paradigm measures that support a culturally responsive learning/working environment; make teaching and learning rewarding and fulfilling; and emphasize community assets to enhance motivation, excellence, and success. For this work-in-progress paper, we describe the development of a leadership community of practice, comprised of department chairs of science and engineering departments, at [university name redacted], a large state-funded comprehensive majority minority master’s granting institution in the Southwest United States. In the year-long Leadership Community of Practice (L-CoP), the Fellows work on unpacking issues of power and privilege in their roles as STEM leaders and educators. During the Fall semester of 2022, the Fellows participated in four sessions. They engaged in readings, videos, active-learning activities, and critically reflective dialogues to facilitate discussion and reflection on identity, agency, the culture of power in STEM, and interventions and change in higher education. The L-CoP starts with Fellows reflecting on their social and professional identities and how their identities influence their teaching and leadership philosophies. Then Fellows are introduced to the framework of the culture of power in science--where they explore the social, cultural, and political impacts of preparing for a STEM college education. Finally, they explore theories and models of change for STEM higher education spaces. Through this curriculum, we aim to examine mental models to deconstruct notions that uphold the culture of power in science by instead building counternarratives with faculty and students in their departments. Through dialogues within the L-CoP, leaders discuss classroom/program climate, structure, and vibrancy to better support healthy educational ecosystems, as well as their participation in these systems. We are currently in the middle of our first implementation of the L-CoP. The first cohort consists of six L-CoP Fellows with highly diverse positionalities; there is racial, ethnic, and gender diversity, and all Fellows are full professors in the tenure line and chairs of their respective departments. We present details of the L-CoP, including the formation of the Fellow cohort, training of the facilitators, structure of the sessions, and initial results of our mid-program survey. The survey results provide insights into potential improvements to our tools and program. We also share some of the Fellows’ and facilitators’ reflections demonstrating a shift toward an ecosystem mindset. We prefer to present this work as a poster at the 2023 ASEE Annual Conference. 

This work-in-progress research paper introduces the Educational Ecosystem Health Survey (EEHS), an educational survey instrument designed by the Eco-STEM team at California State University, Los Angeles, a federally designated Hispanic Serving Institution. The Eco-STEM project applies a framework of Community Cultural Wealth and explores the metaphor of a healthy ecosystem to envision systemic change that responds to the needs and values the assets of diverse actors, who learn together for both their individual and collective good, within the educational “ecosystem.” As part of the project, the Eco-STEM team has developed the EEHS survey instrument to measure the “health” of the educational ecosystem. The results will provide valuable insight into the perceptions and experiences of students from socially and structurally oppressed groups. The Eco-STEM EEHS is comprised of constructs from several survey instruments that have already undergone statistical validation within educational contexts, many of them within higher education. The items peruse issues of social climate, belonging, thriving and wellbeing, interest, mindfulness, stress, and perceptions of the future. Given the Community Cultural Wealth framework and the fact that two-thirds of the student body at California State University, Los Angeles identifies as Hispanic, the EEHS is offered in both Spanish and English. Students are asked to provide a multitude of institutionally relevant demographic information, such that results may be disaggregated along many categories. The EEHS is also administered to faculty, staff, and administration / management in addition to students. By including these essential actors in the analysis of the state of the educational ecosystem, we intend to also measure perceptions of experience serving the STEM educational community, rather than solely receiving it. We will pilot the EEHS during the Spring 2022 semester. Over the next four years of the Eco- STEM project, semesterly administrations will quantify the progress of the project’s initiatives to implement effective systemic change. Our analyses will investigate the perspectives of those with oppressed social identities – individuals who actually hold majority representation within the unique demographic composition of California State University, Los Angeles. The results will offer critically important feedback to Hispanic-Serving Institutions and all institutions who strive to serve students from communities who have been left behind and even exploited by the existing systems and structures of higher education. Keywords: Educational Ecosystems, Community Cultural Wealth, Surveys 

We STEM educators often hear that so many of our students fail because they are not college ready. But interventions at various levels, despite the hard work of implementation, have not resulted in dramatic improvements. What if, instead, the problem is that the institutional system – including instructional approaches and policies – is not student ready? The goal of our NSF supported project, called “Eco-STEM,” is to establish a healthy STEM educational ecosystem that allows all individuals within the ecosystem to thrive. The context for our work on STEM educational ecosystems is a Very High Hispanic Enrolling Hispanic-Serving Institution (HSI) at California State University, Los Angeles, where the majority of our students are also low-income and first-generation college students. Guided by an ecosystem paradigm, the project aims to: 1) create a supportive and culturally responsive learning/working environment for both students and faculty; 2) make teaching and learning rewarding and fulfilling experiences; and 3) emphasize the assets of our community to enhance motivation, excellence, and success. Currently, many STEM educators have a mental model of the education system as a pipeline or pathway, and this factory-like model requires standard inputs, expecting students to come prepared with certain knowledge and skills [4]. When the educational system is viewed as a factory assembly line (as shown in Figure 1), interventions are focused on fixing the inputs by trying to increase students’ preparedness, which contributes to a prevailing deficit-focused mindset. This not only hinders student growth but also makes educational institutions less inclusive and teaching less rewarding for faculty. Increasingly, equity-minded educators and researchers employing the framework of community cultural wealth suggest that we need an asset-based mindset if we are to help all students achieve success in STEM. Research on ecosystem models offers a new way of thinking. In contrast to pipelines or pathways, which focus on student outcomes, an ecosystem model is centered on the learning environment, communities, and the experiences that diverse students, faculty, and staff have in the system as active agents. The Eco-STEM project proposes to: 1) shift the mental models of STEM faculty from factory- based to ecosystem-based so that they will intentionally establish healthy classroom ecosystems that facilitate learning for all students regardless of their backgrounds; 2) change the mental models and develop the capacity of department chairs and program coordinators so they can lead the cultural changes needed to create a healthy ecosystem at the department level; and 3) revise the teaching evaluation system to promote faculty development and enhance the student experience, which will help to create a healthy ecosystem at the institution. One fundamental aspect of this project is the Eco-STEM Faculty Fellows Community of Practice (CoP), which is designed to help foster these changes. As a work-in-progress paper, this paper presents the design and structure of the Eco-STEM Faculty Fellows CoP and seeks input from the faculty development community on our approach to fostering a healthy educational ecosystem for the majority marginalized student population we serve. 

Abstract Andean glaciers have melted rapidly since the 1960s. While some melting is likely due to anthropogenic climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gases, deposition of light-absorbing particles such as black carbon (BC) may also play a role. We hypothesize that BC from fires in the Amazon Basin and elsewhere may be deposited on Andean glaciers, reducing the surface albedo and inducing further melting. Here we investigate the role of BC deposition on albedo changes in the Andes for 2014–2019 by combining atmospheric chemistry modeling with observations of BC in snow or ice at four mountain sites in Peru (Quelccaya, Huascarán, Yanapaccha, and Shallap) and at one site in Bolivia (Illimani). We find that annual mean ice BC concentrations simulated by the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem for 2014–2019 are roughly consistent with those observed at the site with the longest record, Huascarán, with overestimates of 15%–40%. Smoke from fires account for 20%–70% of total wet and dry deposition fluxes, depending on the site. The rest of BC deposited comes from fossil fuel combustion. Using a snow albedo model, we find that the annual mean radiative forcing from the deposition of smoke BC alone on snow ranges from +0.1 to +3.2 W m⁻²under clear-sky conditions, with corresponding average albedo reductions of 0.04%–1.1%. These ranges are dependent on site and snow grain size. This result implies a potentially significant climate impact of biomass burning in the Amazon on radiative forcing in the Andes. 

A 2019 report from the National Academies on Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs) concluded that MSIs need to change their culture to successfully serve students with marginalized racial and/or ethnic identities. The report recommends institutional responsiveness to meet students “where they are,” metaphorically, creating supportive campus environments and providing tailored academic and social support structures. In recent years, the faculty, staff, and administrators at California State University, Los Angeles have made significant efforts to enhance student success through multiple initiatives including a summer bridge program, first-year in engineering program, etc. However, it has become clear that more profound changes are needed to create a culture that meets students “where they are.” In 2020, we were awarded NSF support for Eco-STEM, an initiative designed to change a system that demands "college-ready" students into one that is "student-ready." Aimed at shifting the deficit mindset prevailing in engineering education, the Eco-STEM project embraces an asset-based ecosystem model that thinks of education as cultivation, and ideas as seeds we are planting, rather than a system of standards and quality checks. This significant paradigm and culture transformation is accomplished through: 1) The Eco-STEM Faculty Fellows’ Community of Practice (CoP), which employs critically reflective dialogue[ ][ ] to enhance the learning environment using asset-based learner-centered instructional approaches; 2) A Leadership CoP with department chairs and program directors that guides cultural change at the department/program level; 3) A Facilitators’ CoP that prepares facilitators to lead, sustain, update, and expand the Faculty and Leadership CoPs; 4) Reform of the teaching evaluation system to sustain the cultural changes. This paper presents the progress and preliminary findings of the Eco-STEM project. During the first project year, the project team formulated the curriculum for the Faculty CoP with a focus on inclusive pedagogy, community cultural wealth, and community building, developed a classroom peer observation tool to provide formative data for teaching reflection, and designed research inquiry tools. The latter investigates the following research questions: 1) To what extent do the Eco-STEM CoPs effectively shift the mental models of participants from a factory-like model to an ecosystem model of education? 2) To what extent does this shift support an emphasis on the assets of our students, faculty, and staff members and, in turn, allow for enhanced motivation, excellence and success? 3) To what extent do new faculty assessment tools designed to provide feedback that reflects ecosystem-centric principles and values allow for individuals within the system to thrive? In Fall 2021, the first cohort of Eco-STEM Faculty Fellows were recruited, and rich conversations and in-depth reflections in our CoP meetings indicated Fellows’ positive responses to both the CoP curriculum and facilitation practices. This paper offers a work-in-progress introduction to the Eco-STEM project, including the Faculty CoP, the classroom peer observation tool, and the proposed research instruments. We hope this work will cultivate broader conversations within the engineering education research community about cultural change in engineering education and methods towards its implementation. 

Abstract The reappearance of a northeast Pacific marine heatwave (MHW) sounded alarms in late summer 2019 for a warming event on par with the 2013–2016 MHW known as The Blob. Despite these two events having similar magnitudes in surface warming, differences in seasonality and salinity distinguish their evolutions. We compare and contrast the ocean's role in the evolution and persistence of the 2013–2016 and 2019–2020 MHWs using mapped temperature and salinity data from Argo floats. An unusual near‐surface freshwater anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska during 2019 increased the stability of the water column, preventing the MHW from penetrating deep as strongly as the 2013–2016 event. This freshwater anomaly likely contributed to the intensification of the MHW by increasing the near‐surface buoyancy. The gradual buildup of subsurface heat content throughout 2020 in the region suggests the potential for persistent ecological impacts. 

Alpine glaciers in the low- and mid-latitudes respond more quickly than large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, and radiation. Many high-altitude glaciers are monitored by ground observations, aerial photography, and satellite-borne sensors. Regardless of latitude and elevation, nearly all nonpolar glaciers and ice caps are undergoing mass loss, which compromises the records of past climate preserved within them. Almost without exception, the retreat of these ice fields is persistent, and a very important driver is the recent warming of the tropical troposphere and oceans. Here we present data on the decrease in the surface area of four glaciers from low- to mid-latitude mountainous regions: the Andes of Peru and northern Bolivia, equatorial east Africa, equatorial Papua, Indonesia, and the western Tibetan Plateau. Climate records based on oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) measured in ice cores drilled from several glaciers in these regions reveal that the records from elevations below ~6000 m above sea level have been substantially modified by seasonal melting and the movement of meltwater through porous upper firn layers. Fortunately, δ18O records recovered from higher altitude sites still contain well-preserved seasonal variations to the surface; however, the projected increase in the rate of atmospheric warming implies that climate records from higher elevation glaciers will eventually also be degraded. A long-term ice core collection program on the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, Earth’s largest tropical ice cap, illustrates that the deterioration of its climate record is concomitant with the increase in mid-troposphere temperatures. The melting ice and resulting growth of proglacial lakes presents an imminent hazard to nearby communities. The accelerating melting of glaciers, if sustained, ensures the eventual loss of unique and irreplaceable climate histories, as well as profound economic, agricultural, and cultural impacts on local communities.